Oil price forecast

"Man is what he believes". (Anton Chekhov)

Which elements are capital in the oil price forecast? How will they affected it in the next 3 months?

First of all, the OPEC is depending of the level of the level of demand and production to set a price.  In the short time no big changes are conceivable in production, and the natural increase due to Asiatic growth will be absorbed by the world sensation of crisis. The 87 mbd peak would be enough for the market and the new magaprojects, of course, are not ready to contribute yet. 

The oil price due to the last bad financial news has been suffered daily small reductions (comparing financial markets) towards a 84 $ former support.

To cross the psicological 100 $, a strong demand and bullish financial market would be necessary. That will, for sure, not be the real scenery for this quarter. Most part of the estimations around 120 $, were predicted before the last crash. 

Positions to one year sight, personally are truly irrelevants. Too much variables in a not necessarily  world in peace. Nobody doubts that after the expected peak oil we will see prices of 200-300$, something to focus on, but not to invest money on today

Golden Peaks forecast: this first quarter we will be around 84 $ (+/-  5% range). 

  

The winner mix

"In a crisis be aware of the danger - but recognize the opportunities". (J.F. Kennedy).

In an extraordinary month for markets, global equity prices suffered wild swings as growing worries about a US recession, everything changed deeply but the oil prices and its equities. Oil producers and equipment resisted in a very comfortable position against generalized losses.

Why they did not follow the same pattern of others titles? My intuition is that the sovereign funds are supporting this area, because is closer to their sources and permitting them an easy understanding. It is normal that expecting a recession period they sell all sectors in which they don't feel anything and protect where they are currently living. Selling before the summer house than the family home.

Considering that this moment could be one of the lower value for stocks, start buying in that areas should be a good advise. At least a 50% of the purchase budget giving a chance to rebound again (only to thank the chart analysts its graphic of 'dead cat...'). We already composed our new basket and we will see what happen. Good luck!

GOLDEN PEAKS winner mix (Equities + Funds): 20% Oil Equipment and Drilling+15% Oil Producers+15% Renewable Energies+10%Oil Transport+10% Nuclear+10% Matthews China Fund+10% Fidelity Select-Energy+10% Jennison Natural Resources.