Oil price forecast

"Man is what he believes". (Anton Chekhov)

Which elements are capital in the oil price forecast? How will they affected it in the next 3 months?

First of all, the OPEC is depending of the level of the level of demand and production to set a price.  In the short time no big changes are conceivable in production, and the natural increase due to Asiatic growth will be absorbed by the world sensation of crisis. The 87 mbd peak would be enough for the market and the new magaprojects, of course, are not ready to contribute yet. 

The oil price due to the last bad financial news has been suffered daily small reductions (comparing financial markets) towards a 84 $ former support.

To cross the psicological 100 $, a strong demand and bullish financial market would be necessary. That will, for sure, not be the real scenery for this quarter. Most part of the estimations around 120 $, were predicted before the last crash. 

Positions to one year sight, personally are truly irrelevants. Too much variables in a not necessarily  world in peace. Nobody doubts that after the expected peak oil we will see prices of 200-300$, something to focus on, but not to invest money on today

Golden Peaks forecast: this first quarter we will be around 84 $ (+/-  5% range).